arunmohan
03-17 01:50 PM
Hello group:
This is true that EB3 people are going to stay for longer period( no one knows how long).
I am not sure that how much would be fruitful to port from EB3->EB2. Everone knows that it is not easy.
IV team should think and decide the next course of action for EB3.
I am with them what ever they decide. I am ready to give any kind of support.
Regards
This is true that EB3 people are going to stay for longer period( no one knows how long).
I am not sure that how much would be fruitful to port from EB3->EB2. Everone knows that it is not easy.
IV team should think and decide the next course of action for EB3.
I am with them what ever they decide. I am ready to give any kind of support.
Regards
wallpaper tumblr love quotes, sad
immigrationsri
06-26 06:25 PM
Hi,
I am on H1B visa for the past 2.5 years and my current visa expires on 30th Sept 2010. When i approached my company for visa extension, i was told that based on management decision they are changing my visa from H1 to L1. I have a question on this one. If i proceed with this process and in the mean time i get a job offer from different company in US that is ready for H1 transfer and extension, Is it valid? Can i continue to work on my H1 for remaining years? If this is not a valid case and i need to continue with L1 only (with current employer), Will my number of years to work in US be reduced?
Please treat these questions as urgent ones and kindly reply.
Thanks in Advance.
Regards,
Sri
I am on H1B visa for the past 2.5 years and my current visa expires on 30th Sept 2010. When i approached my company for visa extension, i was told that based on management decision they are changing my visa from H1 to L1. I have a question on this one. If i proceed with this process and in the mean time i get a job offer from different company in US that is ready for H1 transfer and extension, Is it valid? Can i continue to work on my H1 for remaining years? If this is not a valid case and i need to continue with L1 only (with current employer), Will my number of years to work in US be reduced?
Please treat these questions as urgent ones and kindly reply.
Thanks in Advance.
Regards,
Sri
coolmanasip
03-07 11:54 AM
Please read my scrap carefully.....I did say that you need a letter from the company stating that they will employ you on a full time permenant position upon receiving your green card!.....However, you do not need any other support like ability to pay, labor certifications, etc.
2011 sad quotes about life and love
abc
11-20 11:40 AM
5+ yrs, no promotion, pennies as salary hike(once reduced in 2001).
I have decided to break this GC CHAKRAVYUHU.
I have decided to break this GC CHAKRAVYUHU.
more...
HV000
03-18 06:18 PM
Please see the last sentece which says "Thus, the same cut-off date for each country since the extra numbers must be made available in priority date order without regard to country".
When they use this spill over, only PD is imp not the country.
This will make prediction difficult since we do not know how many PDs are eligible in either country. Am i right?
When they use this spill over, only PD is imp not the country.
This will make prediction difficult since we do not know how many PDs are eligible in either country. Am i right?
uma001
07-29 01:31 PM
Given the unemployment rate and also the current market condition, it is not really favorable for starting a Green Card process (Labor/PERM) if you belong to one of the field, where there are adequate number of people already available. The recent economic conditions has flooded the market with many people who might qualify, as the requirement is to accept any US Citizen/Perm Resident, if one has the minimum qualification, even if you do not have all that is requested for. Future GC holder might like this provision after GC !!
In that case, employers should mention the following in the offer letter
" In case, in future, if economy goes bad and recession occurs,we cannot sponsor your green card since it is easy to find american citizens who has minimum qualification."
This should be mentioned on the offer letters given by big comapnies.Then it is up to H1B candidate whenter to take the offer(risk) or not.
Can these companies do this????
In that case, employers should mention the following in the offer letter
" In case, in future, if economy goes bad and recession occurs,we cannot sponsor your green card since it is easy to find american citizens who has minimum qualification."
This should be mentioned on the offer letters given by big comapnies.Then it is up to H1B candidate whenter to take the offer(risk) or not.
Can these companies do this????
more...
abracadabra102
07-14 05:18 PM
I filed for 485 during July 2007. My 140 was already approved. Due to some problems I quit my employer in August 2007. My previous employer was a desi blood sucker. I was fed up & decided to quit after working for him for 3 years. I applied for H1 transfer with a new employer based on approved 140. I got H1 approval for another 3 years. Currently I am working for the new H1 sponsoring employer. I also received an EAD card based on pending 485 for one year. I didnt notify USICS of job change in July.
I applied for EAD extension this year. The application for EAD extension is pending. I got a following RFE on my 485:
Please state whether or not you are currently working for your I-140 petitioner.
You must submit a currently dated letter from you permanent employer, describing your present job duties & position in the organization, your proferred position (if different from your current one), the date you began employement & the offered salary & wage. The letter must also indicate whether the terms & conditions of your employement based visa petition (or labor certification) continue to exist.
I am not in good terms with my previous employer so I cant ask him for a letter. I can ask my new employer for such a letter.
Will USCIS come to know I quite Employer A before completing 180 days?
Also is it possible that 140 was revoked by my previous employer?
What document should I send to USCIS now?
Consult immigration attorney immediately (Murthy, Khanna etc).
I applied for EAD extension this year. The application for EAD extension is pending. I got a following RFE on my 485:
Please state whether or not you are currently working for your I-140 petitioner.
You must submit a currently dated letter from you permanent employer, describing your present job duties & position in the organization, your proferred position (if different from your current one), the date you began employement & the offered salary & wage. The letter must also indicate whether the terms & conditions of your employement based visa petition (or labor certification) continue to exist.
I am not in good terms with my previous employer so I cant ask him for a letter. I can ask my new employer for such a letter.
Will USCIS come to know I quite Employer A before completing 180 days?
Also is it possible that 140 was revoked by my previous employer?
What document should I send to USCIS now?
Consult immigration attorney immediately (Murthy, Khanna etc).
2010 sad quotes on life and love.
belmontboy
05-23 02:19 PM
That is what these computer workers do. Go to forums, steal code, copy that at the appropriate place, change variable names and screw up all the copyright issues.
what is your job?
what is your job?
more...
chetanjumani
02-22 08:24 AM
From my understanding any left over EB4 and EB5 also get carried over to EB1 and from EB1 to EB2. SO would EB2 get the benefit of Eb4 + EB5 + EB1 ?
Thanks,
Chetan
Thanks,
Chetan
hair sad quotes about love tagalog.
pcs
11-16 11:13 PM
send polite but firm letters to....
Cut and paste the rule from the thread to educate him and other...
Alejandro Mayorkas
Director USCIS
20 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington DC 20529
After sending letters ... post it on this thread... I have sent 4 letters on behalf of my 4 family members....
Make the noise NOW ... so that they will have REASONS to release the unused VISAs on 8th DECEMBER......
Cut and paste the rule from the thread to educate him and other...
Alejandro Mayorkas
Director USCIS
20 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington DC 20529
After sending letters ... post it on this thread... I have sent 4 letters on behalf of my 4 family members....
Make the noise NOW ... so that they will have REASONS to release the unused VISAs on 8th DECEMBER......
more...
sbeyyala
12-27 05:43 PM
Great Idea. I spoke to Southern CA Telugu association executive members requesting them to forward this to all there members, I will update this forum once this message is sent out to all the members.
hot hair wallpaper sad quotes. sad
Libra
09-27 11:20 AM
thats true, it will take a while to adjust in home country once you move back, but after a while you feel so good that you never think of leaving the country. My family forcing me to look for a job in India.
more...
house sad quotes on love hurts. sad
HV000
03-18 09:54 PM
Common Guys. Let's focus on the topic of this thread...
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grinch
02-27 11:17 AM
eilsoe,
I'm wondering how you made that curved bench. My bench, is just like straight, like most are, but did you manually adjust the cv's into a curve, or is their a technique?
If you could explain, it'd help alot.
And could you guys reccomend some good (free) texture websites?
I'm wondering how you made that curved bench. My bench, is just like straight, like most are, but did you manually adjust the cv's into a curve, or is their a technique?
If you could explain, it'd help alot.
And could you guys reccomend some good (free) texture websites?
more...
pictures sad quotes about love and
langagadu
06-01 09:47 PM
Oh, Yeah. You think Mexican border needs to be handed over to army??? I agree to stop drug activities but don't generalize.
Do you know who the hard working people are in this country???? Mexicans.... all other lazy asses wants to sit in air conditioning (yes, you are one of them).
Sorry buddy, respect people.
Exactly my thoughts too. How difficult is it to have a copy of your visa, passport and I-94 in each of your vehicles..!!
If you are using EAD, even better, carry the darned EAD card in your pocket...
I agree, they need to step this effort up and get these bloody illegals out. For years now, they have held the entire immigration system in a limbo.
I am from a border state in India too. The entire border is fenced with 15 feet high razor wire fence and there are BSF personnel who watch it like a hawk. If anyone tries touching
that fence, much less sneak in, they will shoot him between your eyes.
The Mexican border needs to be handed over to the US army or the National Guard.
Do you know who the hard working people are in this country???? Mexicans.... all other lazy asses wants to sit in air conditioning (yes, you are one of them).
Sorry buddy, respect people.
Exactly my thoughts too. How difficult is it to have a copy of your visa, passport and I-94 in each of your vehicles..!!
If you are using EAD, even better, carry the darned EAD card in your pocket...
I agree, they need to step this effort up and get these bloody illegals out. For years now, they have held the entire immigration system in a limbo.
I am from a border state in India too. The entire border is fenced with 15 feet high razor wire fence and there are BSF personnel who watch it like a hawk. If anyone tries touching
that fence, much less sneak in, they will shoot him between your eyes.
The Mexican border needs to be handed over to the US army or the National Guard.
dresses sad quotes on life and love.
PHANI_TAVVALA
05-12 03:33 PM
While I wait for GC and chewed up all finger nails, I thought its good time to think about adding a qualification to myself.
I do not want to spend rest of my life in development. :cool:
I was doing some research on Online MBA (no..not the diploma mills or degree printing ones)
My criteria was,
1) Institutions that require GMAT
2) AACSB Accredited
3) Has some sensible ranking in USNews or Financial Times or Business Week
4) Can be done without leaving current job (occasional visit to universities are fine with me)
Here are the universities I came up
1) Warrington College of Business, Florida (USNEWS ranking)
2) WP Carey, Arizona State University (USNEWS ranking)
3) Kelley Direct, Indiana University (highly regarded)
4) Penn State World Campus MBA
And then there are many $$ category colleges which I didnt bother to check..I can't pay those fees :)
Now, can any one suggest or comment or refer to any other college?
Also, what kind of disciplines we should check in an MBA..I dont know if MBA finance will be good..as such I have no preferences. (anything related to Investment banking etc will be good though)
I am doing Kelley Direct and would definitely recommend it. The Professors are great and course work feels like your regular full-time load with assignments, quizzes, mid-terms and finals, project works, case discussions and some weekly classes. Most of the professors are very interactive and you can always call them. The teaching faculty is top-quality with some of them having Ph.d's from MIT's and Stanford's. Marketing is considered top-notch at Kelley. Curriculum allows some flexibility and course load can be completed in 2 to 4 year period requiring 1week compulsory on-campus presence in 1st and 2nd year. If you have time, you can also participate in 3 to 4 week clinics for 1.5 credit hours in summers. It is now costing me around $975/credit hour with 48 credits required to graduate. Add to this cost of books at other administration/technology fee which might add upto $5k to $8k.
I have couple of friends who graduated from Thunderbird too. It is top-notch for International Business but doesnot allow the flexibility to complete at your own pace. My friends were totally tied up with work and course-load for 2 years. It requires somewhere between 51 to 54 credit hours to graduate. It has two compulsory International workshop clinics each in 1st and 2nd year for a period of 3 to 4 weeks. This is partly paid from the fee, while you need to pay for flight tickets and meals. I think the books are included in the $57k+ tuition for this program.
Kelley full-time is ranked between 18 and 23 depending on which source you would like to use. Its Marketing Discipline is in top10. Thunderbird is not ranked in TOP50 but it's INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS discipline is ranked number one.
I do not want to spend rest of my life in development. :cool:
I was doing some research on Online MBA (no..not the diploma mills or degree printing ones)
My criteria was,
1) Institutions that require GMAT
2) AACSB Accredited
3) Has some sensible ranking in USNews or Financial Times or Business Week
4) Can be done without leaving current job (occasional visit to universities are fine with me)
Here are the universities I came up
1) Warrington College of Business, Florida (USNEWS ranking)
2) WP Carey, Arizona State University (USNEWS ranking)
3) Kelley Direct, Indiana University (highly regarded)
4) Penn State World Campus MBA
And then there are many $$ category colleges which I didnt bother to check..I can't pay those fees :)
Now, can any one suggest or comment or refer to any other college?
Also, what kind of disciplines we should check in an MBA..I dont know if MBA finance will be good..as such I have no preferences. (anything related to Investment banking etc will be good though)
I am doing Kelley Direct and would definitely recommend it. The Professors are great and course work feels like your regular full-time load with assignments, quizzes, mid-terms and finals, project works, case discussions and some weekly classes. Most of the professors are very interactive and you can always call them. The teaching faculty is top-quality with some of them having Ph.d's from MIT's and Stanford's. Marketing is considered top-notch at Kelley. Curriculum allows some flexibility and course load can be completed in 2 to 4 year period requiring 1week compulsory on-campus presence in 1st and 2nd year. If you have time, you can also participate in 3 to 4 week clinics for 1.5 credit hours in summers. It is now costing me around $975/credit hour with 48 credits required to graduate. Add to this cost of books at other administration/technology fee which might add upto $5k to $8k.
I have couple of friends who graduated from Thunderbird too. It is top-notch for International Business but doesnot allow the flexibility to complete at your own pace. My friends were totally tied up with work and course-load for 2 years. It requires somewhere between 51 to 54 credit hours to graduate. It has two compulsory International workshop clinics each in 1st and 2nd year for a period of 3 to 4 weeks. This is partly paid from the fee, while you need to pay for flight tickets and meals. I think the books are included in the $57k+ tuition for this program.
Kelley full-time is ranked between 18 and 23 depending on which source you would like to use. Its Marketing Discipline is in top10. Thunderbird is not ranked in TOP50 but it's INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS discipline is ranked number one.
more...
makeup sad quotes on life and love.
sathyaraj
03-06 10:54 PM
Hi All:
I have filed my AOS during last july 2007 and got EAD/AP etc. It has been more than 180 days and have decided to move to new company using AC21.
There have been many threads with information on whether to contact USCIS or not. I have decided to contact USCIS and inform them about Ac21. I hired a lawyer. He seems to be very knowledgeable. As per him, it is not enough just to have an offer letter with salary and job details. He prepared a letter such that the new company also supports my green card process. I am not sure whether my new company will provide this information. As per the information, I have seen in murthy and Rajiv Khanna there is no need to have any support from the new company. Only fulltime job with salary and job duties is enough. He also scared me saying that if the new company does not support my GC, I have to start all over again.
Please provide me with your experience and the inputs from your attorney.
I apologize if this matter is already discussed. Please point me the thread so that I can look up and see.
Regards
SathyaRaj
I have filed my AOS during last july 2007 and got EAD/AP etc. It has been more than 180 days and have decided to move to new company using AC21.
There have been many threads with information on whether to contact USCIS or not. I have decided to contact USCIS and inform them about Ac21. I hired a lawyer. He seems to be very knowledgeable. As per him, it is not enough just to have an offer letter with salary and job details. He prepared a letter such that the new company also supports my green card process. I am not sure whether my new company will provide this information. As per the information, I have seen in murthy and Rajiv Khanna there is no need to have any support from the new company. Only fulltime job with salary and job duties is enough. He also scared me saying that if the new company does not support my GC, I have to start all over again.
Please provide me with your experience and the inputs from your attorney.
I apologize if this matter is already discussed. Please point me the thread so that I can look up and see.
Regards
SathyaRaj
girlfriend quotes on love hurts. sad
abhijitp
07-24 05:20 PM
I have RN since i filed in June.
I deleted my original post since you answered:-) thanks!
This brings up an interesting possibility for me. My first I-140 has been approved over email (awaiting physical receipt), although the Successor in Interest I-140 is pending.
Does the I-140 receipt always contain the A#? I will have to wait to see the physical receipt notice!
I deleted my original post since you answered:-) thanks!
This brings up an interesting possibility for me. My first I-140 has been approved over email (awaiting physical receipt), although the Successor in Interest I-140 is pending.
Does the I-140 receipt always contain the A#? I will have to wait to see the physical receipt notice!
hairstyles រូបភាព » sad-love-quotes
thepaew
05-26 08:29 PM
I have no problems if Americans want to institute a totalitarian state. But, I do not think that random searches will pass constitutional muster.
Actually entire state of NH is within 100 miles of Canada and the coast.
I feel the 100 mile rule is very reasonable and Border Patrol has every right to conduct random searches, question or detain whoever they suspect is breaking the law. Since it is clear that they could do that in this area, it is absolutely no burden for me to carry my papers when traveling here. At least it is easy when I know where the enforcement will be tighter. Harassment... absolutely not! I would so encourage something similar in my own country :)
I myself was once stopped on a cold December night in 2003 in VT on I-91 by the border patrol and all 4 occupants in the car were questioned about citizenship. We showed our I-94's. We felt good that there is someone is actually doing the enforcement of immigration laws.
Actually entire state of NH is within 100 miles of Canada and the coast.
I feel the 100 mile rule is very reasonable and Border Patrol has every right to conduct random searches, question or detain whoever they suspect is breaking the law. Since it is clear that they could do that in this area, it is absolutely no burden for me to carry my papers when traveling here. At least it is easy when I know where the enforcement will be tighter. Harassment... absolutely not! I would so encourage something similar in my own country :)
I myself was once stopped on a cold December night in 2003 in VT on I-91 by the border patrol and all 4 occupants in the car were questioned about citizenship. We showed our I-94's. We felt good that there is someone is actually doing the enforcement of immigration laws.
willigetgc?
08-10 10:30 PM
i feel frustrated at some peoples' unwillingness to admit that eb3 needs iv's help now more than ever. They are saying that nothing much can be done for eb3, as ins merely corrected its wrong interpretation in visa allocation
I went to the advocacy days in DC this June, and the biggest push IV was/is making - country cap elimination. The biggest benefactor of this change is EB3 (eb2 will be helped too, but that is how INS preference system works) - again, the biggest benefactor of this legislative change is eb3. IV has been pushing this issue over and over - try reaching out about town hall meetings or any such meetings with lawmakers - and you will figure out how much iv is working on behalf of eb3. Unfortunately, not many eb3 were active until the last 2 vbs. So, please do not say, "nothing much can be done for eb3" or "IV is not working for EB3". Its just that you may not see value in the route that IV is pursuing. It is eb3 members' unwillingness to admit that IV needs grass root help more than ever now.
but, if we are all willing to put our hearts and minds to it we can surely come up with new ideas that will help our cause. Surely, laws are written so that justice can happen. So if justice is not happening, the law would have some answer, somewhere.
Let me put forward my idea.
The ina language says that until eb2 is not current, there will be no spillover to eb3. Agreed. but i would contend that this statement is on a year to year basis. that is, if in the year 2002 (for example) all eb2 has been satisfied, then the spillovers should go to year 2002 eb3.
i am sorry to point this out, but you are looking at this from only your angle. Don't get me wrong, i would probably do the same. Having said that, logically this change will not fly with the uscis - 2 reasons - 1. Your contention that this rule is year to year - flawed contention 2. What does all eb2 satisfied mean? - these arguments will not work. I am not pulling you or the idea down - but simply stating my point of view based on what I know of the law.
is this something iv can point out and fight for? Can eb3 members put their money and efforts in this direction? Let me know if this sounds worthwhile
now a days we are seeing more threads related to spill over allocation interpretation etc, but i have not seen any single post by iv core about this. I am from eb3 community and share the frustration among others.
i remember a time just a few months ago this year, eb2 were complaining about spillover not happening, and iv core disputed it, saying that spillover was happening.
i see a lot of people suggesting to port from eb3 to eb2, instead of wasting time on these discussions. Well, porting is not an option for most of us. It is either because we are working for big companies (who do not want to extra burden) or not able to find a small company which can help us.
just like you are seeing the ground realities of porting from eb3 to eb2, i believe that iv knows the ground reality of proposing new interpretations to the law. I would go a little further in saying that the proposals considered here are changes in the law than changes in the interpretation of the law.
I may be wrong on my thinking, but I do hope you take a suggestion - when reading the INS law, understand it independently first. Then go back to see, if it can be applied on your interpretation. Do not start out with it, everything looks red when wearing red tinted glasses.......
After the advocacy days in DC, I am sold on what IV is offering and its commitment to the EB community. I am EB3 too and I am pretty much in the same boat as many of you here.
I went to the advocacy days in DC this June, and the biggest push IV was/is making - country cap elimination. The biggest benefactor of this change is EB3 (eb2 will be helped too, but that is how INS preference system works) - again, the biggest benefactor of this legislative change is eb3. IV has been pushing this issue over and over - try reaching out about town hall meetings or any such meetings with lawmakers - and you will figure out how much iv is working on behalf of eb3. Unfortunately, not many eb3 were active until the last 2 vbs. So, please do not say, "nothing much can be done for eb3" or "IV is not working for EB3". Its just that you may not see value in the route that IV is pursuing. It is eb3 members' unwillingness to admit that IV needs grass root help more than ever now.
but, if we are all willing to put our hearts and minds to it we can surely come up with new ideas that will help our cause. Surely, laws are written so that justice can happen. So if justice is not happening, the law would have some answer, somewhere.
Let me put forward my idea.
The ina language says that until eb2 is not current, there will be no spillover to eb3. Agreed. but i would contend that this statement is on a year to year basis. that is, if in the year 2002 (for example) all eb2 has been satisfied, then the spillovers should go to year 2002 eb3.
i am sorry to point this out, but you are looking at this from only your angle. Don't get me wrong, i would probably do the same. Having said that, logically this change will not fly with the uscis - 2 reasons - 1. Your contention that this rule is year to year - flawed contention 2. What does all eb2 satisfied mean? - these arguments will not work. I am not pulling you or the idea down - but simply stating my point of view based on what I know of the law.
is this something iv can point out and fight for? Can eb3 members put their money and efforts in this direction? Let me know if this sounds worthwhile
now a days we are seeing more threads related to spill over allocation interpretation etc, but i have not seen any single post by iv core about this. I am from eb3 community and share the frustration among others.
i remember a time just a few months ago this year, eb2 were complaining about spillover not happening, and iv core disputed it, saying that spillover was happening.
i see a lot of people suggesting to port from eb3 to eb2, instead of wasting time on these discussions. Well, porting is not an option for most of us. It is either because we are working for big companies (who do not want to extra burden) or not able to find a small company which can help us.
just like you are seeing the ground realities of porting from eb3 to eb2, i believe that iv knows the ground reality of proposing new interpretations to the law. I would go a little further in saying that the proposals considered here are changes in the law than changes in the interpretation of the law.
I may be wrong on my thinking, but I do hope you take a suggestion - when reading the INS law, understand it independently first. Then go back to see, if it can be applied on your interpretation. Do not start out with it, everything looks red when wearing red tinted glasses.......
After the advocacy days in DC, I am sold on what IV is offering and its commitment to the EB community. I am EB3 too and I am pretty much in the same boat as many of you here.
deepimpact
09-10 08:50 PM
It is a given that Demand is not stagnant . If it were , backlog would have been reduced by 140K this year alone.
Each year the new quota is 140K , as long as the new demand each year ~100K - the remaining 40K goes towards backlog elimination . We will know in the next inventory report what is "net" reduction for 2010. One can do rough math of latest inventory report and the current priority dates to arrive at ~approximate figure of 35-40K.
I think EB3 should get cleared in next 5 years - I think flood of new EB2 applications are overblown.
I think "peak demand" was between 2003 and 2007 . Good news is USCIS is no more wasting numbers .
Given that change to laws is almost impossible. We should sit tight and wait for 3-5 years.
The problem with your analysis is not every one in the backlog has equal access to excess of 35-40K visas available each year. Most of the excess comes from EB4,5,1 and 2ROW and all goes to EB2 I/C. EB3 ROW gets ~30K every year (42K- 4*2.8K).
Even if we are to assume that post 2007 the demand for EB2 I/C and EB3 is low then also it is ~ 15K for EB2 I/C and ~ 10K for EB3 ROW. But the way INA law is framed EB3 I (most backlogged with ~ 60K) will only get 2800 visa till either of EB2 I/C or EB3 row becomes current. And by current I mean real current, not July 2007. Using these numbers it will still take 4-5 for both EB2 I/C and EB3 Row to become current.
This is assuming low demand in all EB categories continue.
It will be only after 2014-15 that EB3I will get ~ 50K SOFAD(35K SOFAD which EB2 I/C was getting plus about 15K from EB3 ROW category). So in 2015 EB3 I will see a jump of ~ 4 yrs (2003-2007). So EB3I folks with PD after 2007 will have a relative wait time of ~ 8 yrs but folks from 2003-4 are looking at a 12-13 year wait unless reform like Recapture/STEM Degree holders & Dependents excluded from cap is passed.
Each year the new quota is 140K , as long as the new demand each year ~100K - the remaining 40K goes towards backlog elimination . We will know in the next inventory report what is "net" reduction for 2010. One can do rough math of latest inventory report and the current priority dates to arrive at ~approximate figure of 35-40K.
I think EB3 should get cleared in next 5 years - I think flood of new EB2 applications are overblown.
I think "peak demand" was between 2003 and 2007 . Good news is USCIS is no more wasting numbers .
Given that change to laws is almost impossible. We should sit tight and wait for 3-5 years.
The problem with your analysis is not every one in the backlog has equal access to excess of 35-40K visas available each year. Most of the excess comes from EB4,5,1 and 2ROW and all goes to EB2 I/C. EB3 ROW gets ~30K every year (42K- 4*2.8K).
Even if we are to assume that post 2007 the demand for EB2 I/C and EB3 is low then also it is ~ 15K for EB2 I/C and ~ 10K for EB3 ROW. But the way INA law is framed EB3 I (most backlogged with ~ 60K) will only get 2800 visa till either of EB2 I/C or EB3 row becomes current. And by current I mean real current, not July 2007. Using these numbers it will still take 4-5 for both EB2 I/C and EB3 Row to become current.
This is assuming low demand in all EB categories continue.
It will be only after 2014-15 that EB3I will get ~ 50K SOFAD(35K SOFAD which EB2 I/C was getting plus about 15K from EB3 ROW category). So in 2015 EB3 I will see a jump of ~ 4 yrs (2003-2007). So EB3I folks with PD after 2007 will have a relative wait time of ~ 8 yrs but folks from 2003-4 are looking at a 12-13 year wait unless reform like Recapture/STEM Degree holders & Dependents excluded from cap is passed.