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  • sanju
    01-06 04:13 PM
    Slow down chief, not so fast.

    There are two ways to give coverage to an issue. One could be decided based on how many people are affected, second could be based on how may people care for that issue.

    If you go by how may people were affected, I'll say Palestine has a population of how much, say less than 5 million, but it has the world attention for over 50% of the entire world affairs coverage. For world affairs coverage its Palestine v/s rest of the world, but it seems according to you thats not enough. Why should Palestine or for that matter Israel be so important that it should get so much coverage or attention. All the religions AND HENCE THE VIOLENCE were created there. That's why its best to ignore that place so that twisted minds will not get motivation to fight anymore. But my point is, Isreal Palestine issue already gets more than adequate coverage, more so than rawanda, somalia, sudan, terror attacks in India etc. So based on this I don't think its NECESSARY to give Isreal Palestine any more attention.

    But if you apply the second measure, which is how many people care about the issue, well in that case a lot more people here care about the attacks in India and a war between India and Pakistan. For that matter a lot more people on this forum are affected by attacks in Mumbai. If you go to some Palestine forum, maybe you can get more people wanting to discuss their views about Isreal there. But by law of inclination, since there more people on this site from India, you will see more people wanting to discuss about how they and their loved once are affected. If you want to discuss about paleastine, well, go right ahead, no one will respond to you because people are not interested. I am only responding to your rants and not your issue.

    Loss of human life, WHICH IS OFTEN DUE TO SOME TWISTED RELIGION, is always very saddening. This is the core belief of every peace loving society and is not coming out in response to yuor rants. Infact, rants such as yours simple make a few people to tone down their expression of sorrow for the loss of human life.

    There needs to be correction in your post. When Pakistanis terrorist attacked mumbai, world community blamed Pakistan and not the entire muslim community. The problem is, the way muslim community responds to such world events, due to the sense of the guilt of their twisted belief system, they think that the world community is blaming every muslim, but that is actually not how the world community responded. Also, because of the urge to defend terror attacks by a terrorist, muslim community tends to justify terrorism and terrosit attacks. We saw many "educated" (HIGHLY SKILLED) members, who were apparently muslims, on this forum justifying terrorist attacks conducted by Pakistani terrorist who happen to be "muslims". Because, the overriding factor for a lot people following islamic faith is the religion of the person performing the bad deeds. And if that person happen to be a muslim, most of you guys tend to justify bad deeds including terrorist acts. This behavior results in world community responding to you in plain and simple terms that terrorist sympathizer is encouraging more terrorism and hence you perceive that expression as if the others are branding your entire community as terrorist, but again, this is not true either. Its the direct result of your sense of guilt and your urge to be terrorist sympathizer.

    I don't follow any religion. For me nation of my nationality (which could change in future) is above all forms of religions. When I will take US citizenship, my loyalties will be with the nation where my children are born and with the nation where I will become a citizen by CHOICE. Religion has nothing to do my relationship, my responsibilities and my rights in the country I BELONG. I am not saying that this is the right kind of behavior, but the pattern of behavior which is excepted as reasonable by most rationale minds. However, for you, you have to pick up a side in any issue based on the religion of the terrorist or the victims of any situation. You have no regard for the country of your birth or citizenship. Maybe not for you, but I see that as a problem.

    I am a peace loving person and denounce every form of violence SPECIALLY THE ONE CAUSED DUE TO RELIGION. But that is not because of your rants, that's just the way I think normal humans behave. Although I must add that its not my issue as much as Mumbai attacks because Palestine is not in my backyard and I don't have the bandwidth to pay attention to Palestine even if I wanted.

    Hope that's good enought for the day.





    I think we discuss these kind of news in IV. Don't you know that? In the same forum i have heard people saying Isreal is a peace loving nation and they never commit crime.

    Look at what is happening now. Can we justify killing innocent kids? Who would kill kids? How evil one should be in order to kill school kids?

    How evil this world is, watching these attrocities silently. While pakistani terrorists committed attrocities in India, whole world blamed the entire Muslim communities.

    Now where are those peace loving people have gone while Muslims are brutally murdered and innocent kids are brutally killed by missles?





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  • gc_check
    04-08 06:45 PM
    Hi pitha,

    Thanks for posting this info. Could you please share the source of this information?

    None of us should take this bill lightly. There is a saying - "one should never watch sausage or law being made". The guys who vote on the bills, in most instances, don't actually know what they are voting on. Most lawmakers may vote in favor of this bill as the anti-lobby is warpping this bill around a message "this bill is to enhance protections for American workers, so are you going to vote against American workers?" As such most lawmakers could vote in favor of this bill. The current environment is very dangerous where most people watch news in the sound-bites and half of the Senate is running for President. In such an environment, if you ask Obama, Hilary, Dodd, McCain etc., they are all likely to vote in favor of this bill, without going into the nuances and actual implications of this bill. None of these guys would want to be headlines saying something like �Obama is against American Works�. No one will actually care to look at the long term implication of such a bill whereby most of the IT jobs will be outsourced.

    From tomorrow, we should all email and inform everybody that we can, including our employers. What is the direction from IV core? We are all waiting for the matching orders��.

    There was some discussion about H1B Program in CNN's Lou Dobbs program today and not surprised, as usual it was all against H1B... He had people form Programmers Guild speak and they mentioned about this Durbin-Grassley Bill and he also mentioned that in the house a similar Bill will be introduced by Congressman Bill Pascrell.
    http://www.pascrell.house.gov/
    Looks like, the Anit-Immigration / Anti- H1B/L1 are executing an already well planned strategy. We need to do something on this� else as someone wrote in some forum; this will be a slow-bleed and will eventually kill the h1b program. Now or never, we need to join hands and have to do what is possible to assist the core and ourselves.





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  • go_guy123
    09-27 12:31 PM
    It's only the visa numbers...if not 1 year,it will be on the road by two years.Cheer up...I myself have negative feelings what will happen to my family future here.I just talk to myself,Whether I have to apply for Canadian PR for back up.It sure does kill our minds.

    Cheer up...We all will be safe by 2009.It will move faster.

    EB3 I 2004 Jul.

    Canada PR can no longer be backup...since 2002 the new rules have are requiring Canadian PRs to physically stay in Canada for 2 out of 5 years to
    maintain PR.





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  • DSJ
    05-16 12:08 PM
    This is exactly my point. In my view, since have seen both worlds, each one has their own adv and disadv. But eliminating body shopping does not solve todays H1-B shortage issue. They can do many things like limiting no's of H1B per company, release H1B quota quarterly like greencard.

    Do you know that 70-80% of H1Bs are on working on Consulting basis to complete the short-term/long-term assignments. They are the bread and butter of US IT business, not the full-time H1bs working in-house, who again takes a consultant to complete his job.



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  • satishku_2000
    05-16 05:00 PM
    A lot of people don't seem to grasp the fact that what they are doing IS ILLEGAL. Body shopping and everything that goes along with it is against the law in this country, and it is also violating the conditions of the H-1B application. It may be acceptable to you in your mind to do it but the bottom line is -- it's illegal. I am surprised you are crying about illegalities being stopped in this country. There is really not much to debate -- of course it is not an acceptable business model WHEN IT IS ILLEGAL. You can stock up for a business opening on a number of goods -- computers, printers, software etc. BUT NOT SOMETHING THAT IS AGAINST THE LAW. Glad to see congress agreeing with that.


    Do you stand with Sen. Durbin on amnesty/legalization for illegal/undocumented people while creating problems for tax paying and law abiding consultants? This will be height of hypocrosy...





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  • lvgc
    07-14 01:29 PM
    Table 6 at
    http://www.dhs.gov/ximgtn/statistics/publications/LPR07.shtm



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  • calboy78
    08-11 01:23 AM
    bump ^^





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  • Munna Bhai
    07-08 07:47 PM
    Hi,
    I applied for GC under schedule A in may06 .My husband filed as derivative.He received a notice of intent to denial last month .Reason being he did not have paystubs for a period of more than 6 months during 2000 and 2001.His employer at that time did not pay him even after he worked for 4 months then he took few more months to change his company(more than 180 days)In 2002 he went to India and came back .and in 2004 filed for a GC as primary petitioner and me as a derivative .last year he withdrew the petition after he received several RFE`S fearing the worst.Even though he no longer has GC filed as primary petitioner he received notice of intent to deny for the petion filed through me saying that his H1 was not legal as could`nt show proof for several months and that when he filed for AOS he used those years as work experience.
    and now another problem is I applied for EAD in march and have not received new ead.my old ead expired 10 days ago.and now Iam not working.
    We bought a house last year thinking that under schedule A we`ll get GC in no time.Now we know it is a terrible mistake.Now both of us can`t work and had to take my son out of daycare. and we have house payments to make.We put our house for sale weeks ago and so far no offers.I contacted local representative to expedite My EAD and also contacted USCIS to expedite it,
    citing financial burden.We are spending sleepless nights and have no clue what to do for my EAD and his AOS.pLEASE HELP.
    Did anyone face similar situation .Any suggestions are welcome.

    What made them to ask paystub for during 2000 and 2001?



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  • gcgreen
    08-06 02:16 PM
    But you see, what YOU think RollingFlood wants cannot be achieved through a lawsuit. From what I and pretty much most of us understand from the letter of the law is that it allows for earliest priority date. A lawsuit cannot change the law. Also remember that GCs in the employment based category are given based on SPONSORSHIP by an employer. So an EB3 got an earlier priority date based on a labor petition that existed at some earlier period in time when RollingFlood, I, and plenty of others decided we wanted to get a PhD instead. That was OUR choice.

    Also, this is a free country. People who are really committed to get an advanced degree, can enroll in graduate school part time, which is what many people I know did. They hopped onto the GC line as EB3 and went to grad school part time. Some now have graduate degrees from places like Stanford.

    Also note that the law accounts for really smart people to be unfettered by allowing for things such as EB2 National Interest Waiver and EB1 exceptional ability.

    To say that just because someone was doing a PhD and therefore needs to get an earlier priority date that accounts for their graduate program is, to say the least, weird. It is mixing up the employment based system with a merit based system. In fact, one could argue a merit based system should not have any notion of priority dates whatsoever!

    Also, just like you, I have no personal gain from this, one way or the other :-)

    I don't think Rolling flood is debating the eligibility of 5 years experience post Bachelors for EB2. The point here is about porting which enables one to retain the priority date from the EB3 application which maybe required Bachelors + 0 years. To balance things out why not give a person who acquires a Masters or PhD a few years in terms of priority date.

    Note that I have no personal gain from any of the above happening. :)





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  • Macaca
    05-11 05:19 PM
    Obama Recasts Border Issue (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703730804576315531789204212.html) By Laura Meckler | Wall Street Journal

    President Barack Obama on Tuesday tried a new tack on immigration, saying that beefed-up security along the U.S.-Mexico border has proved effective enough that it should draw Republican support for an overhaul of the nation's naturalization system.

    Mr. Obama said his administration had met the concerns of Republicans by increasing law-enforcement manpower to record levels and installing new surveillance technology and fencing.

    "We have strengthened border security beyond what many believed was possible," he said at the Chamizal National Memorial, as a giant Mexican flag waved across the Rio Grande river.

    The president cited several statistics to back up his assertion of tightened borders, including a nearly 40% decrease in arrests at the border, to about 463,000 in 2010. The administration says that is a sign that fewer people are attempting to illegally cross from Mexico.

    Mr. Obama didn't mention that deportations hit record levels last year�a trend that has drawn fire from some Hispanic advocates.
    The speech was aimed in part at reassuring voters who are worried about border security, and in part at renewing support among Hispanic voters he needs to boost his re-election campaign, particularly in Rocky Mountain states.

    He offered no new policy proposals Tuesday, and set no timetable for legislation. Instead, he called for those who support his proposals to build pressure for congressional action from outside Washington.

    The president said the new border-control measures will prevent another wave of illegal immigrants from flowing into the country if those already here are allowed to stay.

    Some prominent unions including the AFL-CIO have opposed immigration legislation in the past, concerned that new arrivals would pose competition for their members. Senators trying to craft an overhaul have said one of the obstacles has been coming up with a guest-worker program unions and business can support.

    Mr. Obama's legislative goals haven't changed since he spoke on immigration last summer, including a path to citizenship for the 10.8 million people already in the U.S. illegally, a program many Republicans oppose as a reward for lawbreaking. Mr. Obama also supports a guest-worker program and making it easier for foreign students educated in the U.S. to stay.

    There is virtually no GOP support in Congress for the legislation Mr. Obama wants, though some Republicans have embraced these ideas in the past.
    Mr. Obama predicted that no matter what he does, some Republican foes of his approach will demand more. "Maybe they'll need a moat," he said. "Maybe they'll want alligators in the moat."

    Arizona Republican Sens. John McCain and Jon Kyl have crafted a $4 billion, 10-point plan that calls for double fencing where there is now single fencing and another 5,000 Border Patrol agents, on top of the 20,700 now in place.

    "We hear from our constituents on a daily basis, and, while some progress has been made in some areas, they do not believe the border is secure," Messrs. McCain and Kyl said in a statement Tuesday.

    They also pointed to a Government Accountability Office report that found the U.S. has "operational control" of 44% of the Southwest border with Mexico, meaning it has the ability to detect, respond and interdict illegal activity.The administration says that isn't a good measure and officials are working on a better one.

    Republicans face pressure within their party to keep the focus on tougher immigration enforcement. But some GOP leaders say the party also needs to improve its standing with Hispanics, the fastest-growing voter group in the U.S.

    But the president faces skepticism even from supporters heading into this latest push.

    "The moment to use pressure is gone. You missed it. The train left the station," said Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D., Ill.). "I want to be honest with my constituents and with the American people. I don't want to rev them up for something that doesn't have any possibilities of success."


    President Obama at the Border (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/opinion/11wed1.html) New York Times Editorial
    A Question of Decency (http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/magazine/87878/immigration-reform-dream-act-border-security) The New Republic Editorial
    Immigration reform and border security: Obama's standards (http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2011/0510/Immigration-reform-and-border-security-Obama-s-standards) The Christian Science Monitor Editorial
    Hideously diverse Britain: a passage from India (http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/may/10/hideously-diverse-britain-passage-india) By Hugh Muir | Guardian
    Britain's got (foreign) talent (http://www.economist.com/node/18648783) The Economist
    The Dark Night of Islam
    The revolutionary events shaking the Islamic world will not change an intolerant and obscurantist culture (http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/266778/dark-night-islam-michael-knox-beran)
    By Michael Knox Beran | National Review
    Obama�s border visit renews focus on immigration policy (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obamas-border-visit-renews-focus-on-immigration-policy/2011/05/09/AF7cPMcG_story.html) By Peter Wallsten and Perry Bacon Jr. | The Washington Post
    New Call in Albany to Quit U.S. Immigration Program (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/10/nyregion/albany-lawmakers-protest-giving-immigrant-data-to-us.html) By KIRK SEMPLE | New York Times
    Obama�s El Paso coup (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/post/obamas-el-paso-coup/2011/05/10/AFaBXOjG_blog.html) By Lee Hockstader | The Washington Post
    In Border City Talk, Obama Urges G.O.P. to Help Overhaul Immigration Law (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/us/politics/11obama.html) By JACKIE CALMES | New York Times
    Securing the border with semantics (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/may/10/securing-the-border-with-semantics/) The Washington Times Editorial
    The Immigration Paradox (http://nationaljournal.com/politics/the-immigration-paradox-20110511) By Ron Brownstein | National Journal
    The demographic politics of immigration (http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/05/immigration_reform_0) The Economist
    Moving away from the border (http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/05/immigration_reform) The Economist



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  • pete
    04-09 11:37 AM
    The job description can be put in the way that points to your plus points. If you go the Harvard Biz. school you will have those. I dont think they want you to leave. There will be other avenues out there.


    I am all for cleaning the system and reforming H1B - but I oppose an ill conceived half measure such as the one Senator Durbin/Grassley is proposing.

    My main concern is two fold:
    1. Let us assume I am a very bright individual and I am currently in Harvard. If I graduate from Harvard Business School, and I want to join McKenzie, can I do that? Can I ever be a Management consultant in US if I want to (read I as any random Joe who is not US citizen/GC holder)

    2. Can I switch jobs within a couple of weeks if I need to (I refers to someone who works for a good company but perceives opportunities else where) - this is important as my competition (US citizen/GC holder) has no restriction in place for them. This is also important during recession when I might be a valuable asset to another company but the company cannot afford to wait.

    My point is: definitely prevent abuse of the system, but not by putting more shackles on the hapless employee. Give the employee freedom to move anywhere for a certain period of time (could be 3 yrs renewable 2 times as per current H1b) and have strict penalties if this employee overstays visa etc.

    Additionally, if employers abuse the system, send them to jail right away (and have whistle blower immigrant status protection). Make employers more accountable than they are today.

    Just my 2 cents.....





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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-26 01:05 AM
    Why cats are better then men ...

    � A cat matures as it grows older.
    � Back hair on cats is cute.
    � When a cat sleeps all day it's natural, not annoying.
    � Unlike a man, a cat can fend for itself.
    � A cat is loyal.
    � Cats actually think with their heads.
    � "Meow" is never a lie.
    � They'll both stand outside your door and whine, but the cat will stop when it gets in. :)
    � It's more amusing to watch a cat try and deal with a piece of tape stuck on its paw than to watch a man do anything.
    � To buy a fancy dinner for a cat only costs 35 cents.
    � A cat's friend is less likely to be annoying.
    � Cats can't show love without meaning it.
    � Cats are always cute.



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  • NeverEndingH1
    12-17 02:32 PM
    Marphad,

    But none of their postings (jaspreetsinghgandhi & tabletpc) had your kind of religious-politics in it!

    This is exactly why terrorist and their supporters like antulay are succeeding...



    Ek aur double standard...

    You definitely didn't think about server hard drive space and your most valuable time when you posted these:

    Medical Insurance:
    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=221246#post221246


    DOW is down - ha ha ha:
    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?p=186584#post186584





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  • rsdang
    08-29 10:58 AM
    :D We've all been there, but don't like to admit it. We've all kicked

    back in our cubicles and suddenly felt something brewing down below. As

    much as we try to convince ourselves otherwise, the WORK POOP is

    inevitable.

    For those who hate pooping at work, following is the Survival Guide

    for Taking a dump at work.



    *CROP DUSTING* - When farting, you walk really fast around the

    office so the smell is not in your area and everyone else gets a whiff, but no

    one knows where it came from. Be careful when you do this. Do not stop

    until the full fart has been expelled. Walk an extra 30 feet to make sure

    the smell has left your pants.



    *FLY BY* - The act of scouting out a bathroom before pooping. Walk

    in and check for other poopers. If there are others in the bathroom,

    leave and come back again. Be careful not to become a FREQUENT FLYER.

    People may become suspicious if they catch you constantly going into the bathroom.



    *ESCAPEE* - A fart that slips out while taking a pee or forcing a

    poop in a stall. This is usually accompanied by a sudden wave of

    embarrassment. If you release an escapee, do not acknowledge it.

    Pretend it did not happen. If you are a man and are standing next to the farter in the urinal,

    pretend you did not hear it. No one likes an escapee. It is uncomfortable for all involved.

    Making a joke or laughing makes both parties feel uneasy.



    *JAILBREAK*- When forcing a poop, several farts slip out at a machine

    gun pace. This is usually a side effect of diarrhea or a hangover.

    If this should happen, do not panic. Remain in the stall until everyone has

    left the bathroom to spare everyone the awkwardness of what just occurred.


    *COURTESY FLUSH* - The act of flushing the toilet the instant the

    poop hits the water. This reduces the amount of air time the poop has to

    stink up the bathroom. This can help you avoid being caught doing the

    WALK OF SHAME.



    *WALK OF SHAME* - Walking from the stall-to the sink-to the door

    after you have just stunk up the bathroom. This can be a very uncomfortable

    moment if someone walks in and busts you. As with farts, it is best to

    pretend that the smell does not exist.--Can be avoided with the use of

    the COURTESY FLUSH.


    *OUT OF THE CLOSET POOPER* - A colleague who poops at work and is

    Dog-gone proud of it. You will often see an Out-Of-The-Closet Pooper

    enter the bathroom with a newspaper or magazine under their arm.

    Always look around the office for the Out-Of- The-Closet Pooper before

    entering the bathroom.



    *THE POOPING FRIENDS NETWORK (P.F.N)* A group of co-workers who band

    together to ensure emergency pooping goes off without incident. This

    group can help you to monitor the whereabouts of Out-Of-The-Closet

    Poopers and identify SAFE HAVENS.



    *SAFE HAVENS* A seldom-used bathroom somewhere in t he building

    where you can least expect visitors. Try floors that are predominantly of

    the opposite sex. This will reduce the odds of a pooper of your sex

    entering the bathroom.



    *TURD BURGLAR* - Someone who does not realize that you are in the

    stall and tries to force the door open. This is one of the most shocking

    and vulnerable moments that can occur when taking a poop at work. If

    this occurs, remain in the stall until the Turd Burglar leaves. This way

    you will avoid all uncomfortable eye contact.



    *CAMO-COUGH* A phony cough that alerts all new entrants into the

    bathroom that you are in a stall. This can be used to cover-up a

    WATERMELON, or to alert potential *Turd Burglars* - Very effective when used in conjunction with a

    SHIRLEY TEMPLE .



    *SHIRLEY TEMPLE* - A subtle toe-tapping that is used to alert

    potential Turd Burglars that you are occupying a stall. This will remove all

    doubt that the stall is occupied. If you hea r a SHIRLEY TEMPLE, leave the

    bathroom immediately so the pooper can poop in peace.



    *WATERMELON* - A poop that creates a loud splash when hitting the

    toilet water. This is also an embarrassing incident. If you feel a

    Watermelon coming on, create a diversion. See CAMO-COUGH.



    *HAVANAOMELET* - A case of diarrhea that creates a series of loud

    splashes in the toilet water--often accompanied by an Escapee. Try

    using a CAMO-COUGH with a SHIRLEY TEMPLE.



    *AUNT BETTY* - A bathroom user who seems to linger around

    forever...Could spend extended lengths of time in front of the

    mirror or sitting on the pot.

    An AUNT BETTY makes it difficult to relax while on the crapper, as

    you should always wait to poop when the bathroom is empty. This benefits

    you as well as the other bathroom attendees



    ************************************************** ******************

    SOME VARIETIES~



    *The King Poop* - This kind is the kind of poop that killed Elvis.

    It doesn't come until you're all sweaty, trembling and purple from

    straining so hard.



    *Bali Belly Poop* - You poop so much you lose 5 lbs.



    *Cement Block* - You wish you'd gotten a spinal block before you

    poop.



    *Cork Poop* - (Also Known as Floater Poop) = Even after the third

    flush, it's still floating in there. How do I get rid of it? This poop

    usually happens at someone else's house.



    *The Bungee Poop* - The kind of poop that just hangs off your rear

    before it falls into the water.



    *The Crippler* - The kind of poop where you have to sit on the

    toilet so long your legs go numb from the waist down.



    *The Chitty Chitty Bang Bang* - The kind of poop that hits you when

    you're trapped in your car in a traffic jam.



    *The Party Pooper* - The giant poop you take at a party and, when

    you flush the toilet, you watch in horror as the water starts to rise.



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  • pcs
    05-16 12:54 PM
    Free market economy is the best for mankind. As long as nobody steals, laws should not bind people's imagination & creativity.

    Hiring of H1-B by "consultencies" is like stocking goods in a shop before you open for business. This is an acceptable model for business in any society. I support the process of hiring H1-B by bodyshoppers, BUT would like Congress to implement some guidelines by which H1-B should have more dignified life & freedom to work like.... unlimited freedonm of job changes of employers within 6 years or valid VISA period. Self administration / support of green card process. This single step will cure all evils.

    By the way, I am not an IT guy / bodyshopper





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  • thomachan72
    08-06 01:31 PM
    I am going to lodge a complaint with the IV administrators to close this thread. My belly muscles are hurting bad by laughing continuously. Wow friends, this is a selected lists, "cream from all the jokes". Please keep it going :D:D:D



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  • mariner5555
    04-20 01:04 AM
    since nothing much is happening - I thought that I would post this - seems like a worst case scenario -but who knows ..some of his predictions have already come true ..this was interview on mar 24.
    ---------
    Q. Where are home prices going?

    A. Two years ago, I predicted home prices would fall cumulatively 20%, but now I believe it will be at least 30%.

    With a 20% fall in home prices, about 16 million households are under water. They have negative equity, which means the value of their homes is below the value of their mortgages. With a 30% drop in prices, you have 21 million households that are in negative equity. And since the mortgages are no-recourse loans, essentially they can walk away.

    Even if only half of the 16 million households were to walk away, that alone could lead to losses for the financial system of $1 trillion. Even a 20% drop in home values may imply losses of $1 trillion that are not priced into the market today. So that's the floor. Again, it could be higher — as much as $2 trillion — if prices fall 30% and more people walk.

    Q. You are predicting problems in commercial real estate, which we haven't seen yet. When do you expect the crisis to hit?

    A. The same kind of reckless lending practices that occurred in subprime also occurred in commercial real estate — things like really high loan-to-value ratios and inflated estimations of how much rent would increase. If you look at the CMBX index (which tracks bonds backed by real estate loans), the spreads imply a huge number of defaults on existing commercial real estate loans. More important, the market for new commercial real estate loans is totally frozen, like the one for subprime new originations.

    Q. But when will this happen?

    A. That shoe has not dropped yet. But I expect the severe recession in residential housing will lead to a severe recession in commercial real estate. The reason is simple: If you go west, you have entire ghost towns outside of Phoenix, Las Vegas and throughout California. Who is going to be building new shopping centers, shopping malls, offices and stores where you have ghost towns? Also, there has been a lot of commercial real estate activity in the last couple of years, including a huge increase in retail capacity at a time of consumer-led recession. So, I expect [a commercial real estate] collapse will occur in the next few quarters.

    Q. How bad will things get?

    A. I would argue this is the worst financial crisis the U.S. has had since the Great Depression. We haven't seen this type of real financial turmoil for the last 70 years. Of course, it's not going to be as bad as the Great Depression. But this isn't your typical run-of-the-mill recession that in the last two episodes lasted only eight months with a minor contraction in output. This is going to last at least 12 months and more likely 18 months, which is something we haven't seen in decades.

    Q. So you expect the economy to start turning around in mid-2009?

    A. The real economic activity, yes. But some parts of the system are going to be in a severe contraction for much longer; home prices are going to keep falling for another three years, in my view. And the financial mess is going to take years to clean up.
    -----------------------------





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  • HawaldarNaik
    12-26 08:08 PM
    My take on this is that there are two options

    Option-1:- Go for an all out war as i specified...however the risk here is that it could go on and on and on...like we have seen in otherparts

    Option-2:- Work with like minded countries (work with them covertly), to completely eliminate terror camps (difficult it may seem cause its the bread/butter and cheese of those who run the neighbouring country)

    Option-1, if we can come up with a quick operation (remember 26/11 took 60 hours), otherwise option-2, but we have to be on the ball and make sure we get one of the two done otherwise as i said the next strike could not be far away on one of our major cities....
    Also Option-1 should be directed at the Terror infrastructure (by infrastructure i mean man power included cause otherwise they will disperse and regroup like they do in the western border in the war that the superpower is waging)





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  • alisa
    12-26 11:29 PM
    Amma,Yes, we may loose people but 'proud nation' of pakistan would disappear from the map. I'm against death of innocent but my point is to remove the threat of nuclear weapons.

    So, you want to remove the threat of nuclear weapons by using them?


    Having said that, we need to do a conventional warfare. But I guess that, it would be more of a dogfight that would bleed us economically. Meanwhile, we need to strengthen the laws but also ensure it is not abused ( corruption and bias are something that is prevalent among people with power..it wud be very hard but people with power shud be very disciplined). Diplomatically pressurize the failed nation of Pakistan and do undercover ops in Balochistan and NWFP. Collaborate with Sindhi Mujahirs and create a division between Urdu speaking Punjabis and Sindhi speaking Mujahirs and Pashutun groups.
    IK Gujral stopped the covert ops. It need to be restarted.

    Ironically, those steps are exactly what the right-wing Pakistani establishment is afraid that India is currently undertaking to destabilize Pakistan.


    Peace,
    G
    Peace indeed.....





    hopefulgc
    08-11 04:35 PM
    what a loser a person has to be to give out red dots for jokes.

    i am here to counter the trends of red dots :)

    I also got a red dot for my joke:confused:. Never used any foul language. Comment left was "This type of "blonde jokes" or "sardar jokes" etc are not really suited for a skilled immigrant community forum." I don't understand why do people give Red dots even for jokes. The title of the theread is Ligthen Up.





    dealsnet
    01-07 12:25 PM
    Here I got a comment from a member about the Palastine people. Ask any Indian in middle east about them. They hate the palastines. They consider Indians as inferior to them. They act like superior.
    I heard many saying , 'if they behaving like this as a refuge, if they have own country what will be their attitude?'
    Some guys support traitors. Any way all terrorists are traitors of the country they live.
    see link which a member send to me. www.thereligionofpeace.com
    another one.http://www.faithfreedom.org/Articles.htm

    I am pasting a feedback from a member.
    'got it right, I met many people from palastine, none of them qualifies as good human'



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